Unpredictable times but lets keep riding...

Armaurto CEO talks tariff and trade wars and the Iconic Sea Otter Classic

Trump's tariffs are causing chaos in the cycling industry...

Another Sea Otter Classic, the 2025 lead-up, unlikely to be replicated...

Elements of our industry had started to sense some light at the end of a prolonged and extremely challenging tunnel but trade tariffs dominated global news headlines.

As regular (and excited) visitors to the Sea Otter Classic, the Monterey event has steadily grown in relevance and importance.

The US based event has always had strategic value and importance for Armaurto. One in every three orders are shipped to the US and we have long championed strong American brands, Sea Otter is a wonderful opportunity to check where the market is right now and always a wonderful chance to connect and get face-to-face, discuss new product and offerings, and align on plans. Beyond that, we must appreciate how closely our markets follow the US. Being there allows us to tap into upcoming trends, speak with US distributors and retailers, and take the pulse of the market from the ground.

Nestled in the hills just outside Monterey, Sea Otter's home is a couple of hours’ drive south of San Francisco, and hosts around 65,000+ visitors, with over 6,000 signing up to race. You’ll find around 500 exhibitors and close to 1,000 brands - from household names to up-and-coming industry start-ups, including some familiar UK brands who exhibit too.

This year, a different vibe to the event. On April 2nd, Donald Trump unveiled his new tariff list—China 34%, Vietnam 46%, Taiwan 32%, Thailand 36%, and the list went on and on and on. These are not fringe manufacturing locations—they are the heartbeat of the global cycling supply chain. For an industry still navigating over-supply, squeezed margins, and consumer price sensitivity, this couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Flights to the event (San Francisco) were unusually quiet, cabins reported as being less than half full. UK distributors nowhere to be seen at the airport which is very unusual. And while we did come across a couple at the event, it did make me wonder—has the “America First” narrative begun to deter European business visitors as well as worldwide tourism..? Judging by reports of declining travel into the US, I’d say, very much a growing concern.

The opening day, a feeling of being subdued compared to previous years. As the weekend approached, footfall increased, but the atmosphere was undeniably muted. By this point, China had retaliated with a 125% tariff, and the US countered again - escalating to a staggeringly jaw-dropping 145%. Cold Spring weather, the pop-up shelters and stands stood firm but sadly conversations under them were filled with disbelief and frustration.

Brands were reeling. Initial mitigation plans crafted during earlier tariff rounds had now collapsed. Production lines were being paused, containers rerouted or cancelled altogether. Nobody had clear guidance. Even long-time Trump supporters among brand owners admitted this wasn’t the outcome they had pictured or even, what they had voted for. Domestic manufacturers were slightly more upbeat but cautious—their optimism tempered by concerns over lost export potential if reciprocal tariffs remain. 

Parallels are drawn with Brexit. Both Make America Great Again and Brexit share a yearning for a version of the past that perhaps never really existed, industrial globalisation isn’t a tap you can turn off, widespread disruption most certain.

Mr Trump’s new tariffs, delayed by 90-days, China excluded. The industry going forward, seeking clarity with a real risk of further fragmentation if the factories in the East start to give way. Product originally bound for the US, looking destined for Europe. Are we facing renewed downward pressure just as our industry begins to stabilise post-Covid?

Still, amid the uncertainty, Sea Otter continued. What a difference 24-hours makes, crowds had definitely grown, there was energy, conversations had turned, thankfully back to all things two-wheeled, and a shared passion that glues this amazing global industry and our cycling community together.

Unpredictable times once again but one thing holds true: when the world goes mad (and I'm sure it will again)—all we can do is keep riding

See you in Australia for the inaugural Sea Otter, October 2025!